Eddie Mungai

This Friday, the English Premier League resumes after a three-month hiatus. Three new teams join the Premier League this 2019/20 season: Sheffield United, Norwich City, and Aston Villa.

Obviously, the objective of the newly promoted teams is to avoid relegation from the Premier League. I thought about the ingredients that make a team survive. Money, managers, and a little luck in scheduling are all factors that allow a newly promoted team to survive. However, I wanted to see if the number of African players on a first-team squad and the key appearances African players makes contribute to the likelihood of survival for newly promoted African teams.

Thus, I compiled a chart of newly promoted teams from the last five seasons. The chart outlines the season and position in which the team finished, the number of African players in the first-team, key appearances made by African players, and the countries represented by players making key appearances. Key appearances are individuals that made at least half of Premier League appearances in that given season.

Here are some notable observations. As the chart reveals, 100% of the teams that didn’t have an African player were all relegated. Additionally, 60% of the teams that didn’t have an African player feature in at least 50% of Premier League games were relegated. However, 60% of teams that had at least one African player survived relegation. Teams that had West African players make key appearances (Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, Benin, Nigeria, and Senegal) survived 71% of the time. Teams with Central African players making key appearances (Cameroon, Gabon, DRC) survived 57% of the time. Teams with North African players (Morocco, Egypt, Algeria) survived 67% of the time. 

So what can we make of this?

1. It doesn’t hurt to have an African player on a newly promoted team.
2. There seems to be a tendency for a greater likelihood of survival for newly promoted teams if African players make key appearances in the Premier League.
3. West African players in the Premier League do make more key appearances than any other regions in Africa, and they play a positive role in the newly promoted team’s survival.

But this, by no means, is the sole reason for newly promoted teams surviving in the Premier League. There are definitely other factors, but I found it interesting to see the impact (if any) African players make in newly promoted teams. Looking at the three new teams for the 2019/20 season and the number of African players they have on their teams at the moment, I predict Norwich City (0 African players in the first-team) and Sheffield United (0 African players in the first-team) will be relegated and Aston Villa (5 African players) will survive. Let’s see how the season plays out!